The Cannonfire blogspot makes some very interesting observations and draws some convincing conclusions about the “Muslim Innocence” movie:

Think about it. Who the hell is going to loan Nakoula — a guy guilty of freakin’ bank fraud — the sum of five million dollars? Even if the actual budget was $50,000, how would this jailbird scrape up the dough? He was sent to prison for 21 months in 2010; how did he secure an early release?

You can’t make a movie of any kind — even a student film — if you can’t communicate via the internet.

How many times have we seen this pattern? First, a shady low-life gets into trouble with the law. Then the spooks find him, whisper in his ear, and promise to make all of his problems go away — as long as he plays along with some bizarre scheme.

And what sort of crook would make it his first order of business, after walking out of jail, to make a movie denigrating Mohammed — a film intentionally designed to create an international incident? If you had no job, no prospects, a prison record and a debt of more than three-quarters of a million dollars, would your first instinct be to make a damned movie? Even though you’ve never made a movie before in your life?

Believe me, that script was written weeks ago, maybe months ago. This whole thing is an operation.

I mean, what the hell could Nakoula (freshly released from the joint) have hoped to gain for his co-religionists in Egypt? Did he really think that his inane film would cause all the Muslims in Egypt to slap their heads and shout: “Oh no! We’ve been following the wrong religion! Time to switch!”?

Anyone with any sense could have foreseen that this cinematic stunt would incite outrage, riots and persecution of the Copts. Nakoula — or rather, his funders — wanted to get people killed.

Incidentally, a friend of mine “in the industry” has seen the YouTube material and estimates the budget of Nakoula’s film at around $30,000. I’d go higher, but not much higher. The rest of the $5 million budget was Nakoula’s payoff. It’s blood money. 

Neocons in America and Israel concocted this plot long ago. I would stake my life on it.

We can state with the certainty of a geometrical proof that Sam Bacile is a Mossad asset — a “sayan” — and that he did what he did under orders, not of his own initiative. The motive is transparent: Likudniks want the United States to attack Iran, and they know that Obama won’t do it. Romney will. He has made that point very clear. Thus, Israeli war hawks concocted a plan to make sure Romney gets into office.

The conspirators made this film for the express purpose of provoking a violent reaction, which would, in turn give the Republicans a political cudgel to wield against the president.

I do not doubt for a second the presence of provocateurs on the ground in Cairo and Libya. (How did they even know about the YouTube clip?) I also believe that this plan would have remained “on hold” if Romney had attained a comfortable lead.

I’m pretty sure that CIA had nothing to do with this. Only Israeli intelligence is so reckless.

The blog’s analysis is all the more compelling when read in conjunction with these excerpts from an NYT piece here:

When a 14-minute trailer of it — all that may actually exist — was posted on YouTube in June, it was barely noticed. But when the video, with its almost comically amateurish production values, was translated into Arabic and reposted twice on YouTube in the days before Sept. 11, and promoted by leaders of the Coptic diaspora in the United States, it drew nearly one million views and set off bloody demonstrations….. The history of the film — who financed it; how it was made; and perhaps most important, how it was translated into Arabic and posted on YouTube to Muslim viewers — was shrouded Wednesday in tales of a secret Hollywood screening; a director who may or may not exist, and used a false name if he did; and actors who appeared, thanks to computer technology, to be traipsing through Middle Eastern cities….He said the film had been shown at a screening at a theater “100 yards or so” from Grauman’s Chinese Theater in Hollywood over the summer, drawing what he suggested was a depressingly small audience. He declined to specify what theater might have shown it, and theater owners in the vicinity of the busy strip said they had no record of any such showing….As the movie, “Innocence of Muslims,” drew attention across the globe, it was unclear whether a full version exists. Executives at Hollywood agencies said they had never heard of it. Hollywood unions said they had no involvement. Casting directors said they did not recognize the actors in the 14-minute YouTube clip that purports to be a trailer for a longer film. Production offices had no records for a movie of that name. There was a 2009 casting call in BackStage, however, for a film called “Desert Warrior” whose producer is listed as Sam Bassiel.”